Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
